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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.